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8399039
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# UK economy delivers double blow to George Osborne ahead of Budget 2011
## The Chancellor must unveil Wednesday's Budget against a grim economic
backdrop, after new figures stoked fears inflation is out of control and
revealed that the nation's finances are in a worse state than thought.
![UK economy delivers double blow to George Osborne ahead of Budget 2011][1]
Inflation threatens the Chancellor's plans to reduce the budget deficit Photo:
REUTERS
[![Emma Rowley][2]][3]
By [Emma Rowley][4] 6:00AM GMT 23 Mar 2011
[Follow Emma Rowley on Twitter][5]
[Comments][6]
**Follow our [Budget 2011 live][7] coverage for the latest news on the [2011
Budget][8]. **
The retail prices index (RPI) measure of inflation hit a 20-year high in
February, while the public sector borrowed a record amount, casting a pall
over George Osborne's latest tax and spending plans.
The data flagged up the risks around the recovery as over-target inflation
combines with sluggish growth.
"There is a fine line between controlled higher inflation and high inflation
controlling the economy," said Emma Wilson at exchange firm Currency
Solutions. "We are standing on that line right now."
The Government's preferred measure of inflation, the consumer prices index
(CPI), shot to a 28-month high of 4.4pc from January's 4pc, the Office for
National Statistics said, ahead of expectations it would come in at 4.2pc.
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The jump signalled that inflation is running at more than double the 2pc
target and well above the average pay deal, meaning many are experiencing
effective pay cuts.
The RPI gauge, which some see as a better reflection of the cost of living as
it includes more housing expenses, leapt from January's 5.1pc to 5.5pc, the
highest since 1991.
The growing cost of heating homes and buying clothing was behind the month-on-
month CPI leap, while fuel and food remain the major long-term price
pressures.
The feed-through of the Government's decision to raise the VAT sales tax in
January is aggravating the situation, said economists.
"With 20-20 hindsight the VAT increase … was at best mistimed and at worst a
major error," warned the Centre for Economics and Business Research, a think-
tank.
To meet the Bank of England's central forecast that CPI will be 4.1pc in the
current quarter, the rate would have to drop back to an "infeasible" 3.8pc for
March, according to Philip Shaw at Investec.
Meanwhile, the public sector's net borrowing - stripping out the cost of
bailing out the banks - hit £11.8bn in February, a record for the month, up
from £9.5bn the year before.
Economists had thought that the figure would shrink, but the tax take
disappointed.
Mr Osborne still looks on track to undershoot the Office for Budget
Responsibility's £148.5bn forecast for borrowing for the full year, but with
less headroom than hoped.
With one month left, he looks set to undershoot the target by £6bn rather than
the £8bn recently hoped, said the Ernst & Young ITEM Club.
Going ahead, inflation threatens the Coalition's plans to reduce the budget
deficit, if the squeeze on consumers' spending power - and the knock-on effect
on company profits - reduces the money coming into the taxman.
Minutes for the March meeting of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, out on
Wednesday_** **_could show the inflation worry pushed another member of the
nine-strong panel to vote for an immediate rate rise, taking the split to four
in favour and five against.
Opponents fear higher rates could derail the recovery, since growth should
slow further as public spending cuts hit in full.
Just one in ten Britons expects the economy to strengthen in the next six
months, according to a new Ipsos MORI survey.
Meanwhile the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development reported
that the recent oil price spike could shave half a percentage point off growth
across the world's advanced economies by 2012.
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## [Budget][8]
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### [Budget 2011 in quotes][29]
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## [Budget 2011 »][8]
[Budget 2011: reaction and analysis][7]
[Budget key points][33]
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[How will the Budget affect me?][36]
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