2013-04-16 10:05:26 +02:00

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finance
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marketreport
8534287
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# Commodities rally as Goldman goes long
## Having last month prompted a sell-off in mining shares after calling the
top of the commodities boom, Goldman Sachs had the opposite effect on Tuesday
after decreeing it was once again time to go long.
[![Rachel Cooper][1]][2]
By [Rachel Cooper][3], City Reporter 7:12PM BST 24 May 2011
[Follow Rachel Cooper on Twitter][4]
[Comments][5]
[FTSE today: market report live][6]
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Analysts said in April - just as commodities trading giant, **Glencore
Internationa**l, was preparing to float - that it was time to take profits in
raw materials such as copper. But, this was a short-term view and given the
recent slide in commodity prices, Goldman is now turning "more bullish".
That helped metal prices - and mining shares - acclerate, with the likes of
**Antofagasta **and **Fresnillo** putting on 36p to £11.96 and 54p to £13.56
respectively. It also lifted Glencore, which advanced 11 to 525p on its first
day of official trading, but that is still short of its 530p offer price.
"Although we remain structurally bullish and have long argued the structural
case for being long, timing does remain critical," said Goldman Sachs.
"This was evident in the recent market correction, which brought commodities
down roughly 10pc from their April highs. With prices now more inline with
near-term fundamentals and price targets, we believe that the risk/reward once
again favours being long commodities."
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Writing on base metals, analysts thought that China's purchasing of copper
could increase in coming months while on oil, Goldman reckoned the civil
conflict in Libya could eventually push prices higher. They forecast that
Brent crude could reach $120 a barrel by the end of 2011 and $130 a barrel
within the next 12 months. Morgan Stanley is predicting similar levels.
With Goldman's change of heart fuelling a recovery in mining shares, the
market swung back into positive territory - the **FTSE 100** put on 22.52
points to 5,858.41 and the **FTSE 250** advanced 63.09 points to 11,858.76.
However, traders were worried about the sustainability of the rally, given
ongoing concerns about the European debt crisis. "With this on the table the
chance of a major downside move remains very real, and is currently
undermining any strength offered by individual equities," said Will Hedden, a
sales trader at IG Index.
But, the day belonged to the bulls, with **Cairn Energy **leading the charge
for much of the session, only to be displaced by Fresnillo. Not only was the
oil exploration group buoyed by the rising price o foil, but it also announced
a new drilling programme in Greenland. Cairn said it was to drill up to four
further exploration wells, which lifted it up 16.6 to 435.8p.
However, analysts at Matrix kept their "hold" rating, saying: "Cairn is at the
start of a critical exploration campaign. The market will be looking for
genuine encouragement this year to feel comfortable about the continuation of
the high-cost campaign into 2012."
Analysts at Evolution Securities added Cairn's shareholders are standing at a
cross roads, with the prize being the wider implication of more barrels in the
under-explored Greenland basin. But, the broker said the flip side is that if
this summer's drilling campaign disappoints, Cairn will have "spent around a
$1bn (£619m) for nothing".
"So the question is do you take profits now and come back if there is success
in Greenland?" said analysts.
At the other end of the spectrum, **Marks & Spencer** gave up some gains after
its recent strong performance as investors digested the high street retailer's
full-year results. M&S slipped 11.4 to 385.6p despite posting a rise in
profits as the chain pointed to a "challenging" trading environment. Other
retailers followed M&S lower, with Primark-owner Associated British Foods
shedding 11p to £10.67.
Amongst the second-liners, **SuperGroup** eased 14p to £10.51 amid concerns
about sales at the streetwear retailer. However, **Sports Direct International
**surged 15.1 to 227½p as buyers piled into the sportswear retailer, which
last month said sales were on the up.
Back on the top tier, airlines and tour operators also continued to suffer
from anxiety over the latest ash cloud after Iceland's Grimsvotn volcano blew
ash in Britain's direction. **International Airlines Group** fell 4.2 to
230.8p and **TUI Travel** was a ha'penny lower at 229.3p.
Slipping back too were the banks, with **Lloyds Banking Group **shedding 1.13
to 49.74p and **Royal Bank of Scotland** easing 0.44 to 40.44p. Investors were
ruffled by a warning that credit rating agency, Moody's, may downgrade 14
British lenders because regulators appear less willing to bail out banks in
the future.
Amongst the second-liners, **Pace** steamed ahead as Exane BNP Paribas awarded
the maker of television set-top boxes a double upgrade, raising its rating to
"outperform". Pace's shares have slid since it issued a profit warning earlier
this month due to higher supply chain costs as a result of the Japanese
earthquake.
But, Exane analysts reckoned Pace should return to earnings growth in 2012.
The broker also thought that Pace could attract attention from a predator,
especially as its American foothold could be appealing to Korean players. Talk
that Pace could already have attracted a suitor, as well as the upgrade,
helped it tick up 4.6 to 102.8p.
Rumours were also swirling that the **London Stock Exchange** (LSE) could see
bid interest. Although the bourse is trying to seal a tie-up with TMX,
operator of the Toronto stock exchange, there has been speculation that the
LSE itself could fall prey to an acquirer. Yesterday, gossips said the
exchange, which closed up 19 at 908p, could attract a bid of £15-£16 per
share.
**Victrex **claimed pole position after posting a 57pc jump in first-half
profit to £48.3m and raising its interim dividend 25pc. The shares climbed
108p to £15.09.
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